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| | NAIRU - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia |
 | | Their counter-analysis was that government macroeconomic policy (primarily monetary policy) was being driven by a low unemployment target and that this caused expectations of inflation to change, so that steadily accelerating inflation rather than reduced unemployment was the result. | | | The resulting prescription was that government economic policy (or at least monetary policy) should not be influenced by any level of unemployment below a critical level - the "natural rate" or NAIRU. | | | Monetary policy should aim instead at stabilizing the inflation rate. |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU
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| | FRBSF: Economic Letter - NAIRU: Is It Useful for Monetary Policy? (11/21/97) |
| | The NAIRU figures prominently in the Phillips curve, which is a relationship that incorporates a temporary trade-off between the unemployment rate and inflation. | | | According to the Phillips curve, an unemployment rate that is below the level identified as the NAIRU (that is, a "tight" labor market) tends to be associated with an increase in inflation; conversely, an unemployment rate that is above the NAIRU tends to be associated with a decrease in inflation. | | | A theoretical objection to the use of the NAIRU for monetary policy is that the short-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation may be unstable over time. |
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http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/wklyltr/el97-35.html
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| | TAP: Vol 6, Iss. 21. Our NAIRU Limit. Robert Eisner. |
| | The basic proposition of the NAIRU is simple: Policymakers cannot use deficit spending or an increase in the money supply to reduce unemployment below some "equilibrium" rate, except at the cost of accelerating inflation. | | | The first is that, left to itself, any given rate of inflation is self-perpetuating; the second, that unemployment is a key factor in changing inflation rates specifically, that higher unemployment lowers inflation, and lower unemployment raises inflation. | | | Freeing the model from those constraints leads to dramatically different conclusions; this calls into question the use of the NAIRU as a justification for blocking fiscal and monetary policies that might bring "full employment," or distinctly lower unemployment than what is now widely viewed as acceptable. |
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http://www.prospect.org/print/V6/21/eisner-r.html
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| | NAIRU, the Phillips Curve and Okun's Law |
| | Though the consensus for NAIRU has been 6%, inflation has declined regularly over the five year period to a current 2.5% level. | | | In fact, as cited by several Federal Reserve Governors, NAIRU and its extension the Phillips curve, have been the most stable tools available to economists over the last 20 year period. | | | The Phillips curve is the relationship of how much the rate of inflation will change as unemployment rises or falls from the NAIRU level. |
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http://www.allegiancecapital.com/sctn4k.html
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| | The NAIRU concept: A few remarks |
| | For these reasons, we argue, that policy conclusions drawn from the NAIRU concept must be judged with utmost care, particularly since in many countries a number of labour market measures as well as monetary policy are based on this concept. | | | According to modern labour market literature NAIRU is defined as the rate of unemployment at which inflation stabilises in the absence of any wage-price surprises. | | | This issue of OECD Economic Outlook looks at prospects for the next two years and includes a special report on recent increases in house prices in the OECD area. |
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http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,2546,en_2649_34575_1863844_1_1_1_1,00.html
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| | NAIRU |
| | To understand the current policy controversy on the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) and inflation, we have first to review a few macroeconomic concepts. | | | Most mainstream economists believe that the natural rate is closer to 5.5% as the actual unemployment rate was high during the 1990-91 recession. | | | Usually the level and the broad changes in the natural rate can be measured by comparing average unemployment rates in various decades. |
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http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/NAIRU.HTM
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| | Bruce Bartlett Opinion Editorial: Unemployment, Inflation And The Minimum Wage |
| | The decline in the NAIRU allowed the Fed to ease monetary policy without fear of re-igniting inflation, contributing to strong growth in the 1980s. | | | Increases in the minimum wage imposed by Bill Clinton are also causing the NAIRU to rise and forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy. | | | Even in a full-employment economy there will always be frictional unemployment resulting from people quitting jobs or natural restructuring of the economy, as jobs shift from slow growing sectors to fast growing sectors. |
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http://www.ncpa.org/oped/bartlett/aug2100.html
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| | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - The Region - Gary H. Stern Column-Rethining NAIRU (June 2000) |
| | And secondly, it is well to recall that there is an impressive body of research indicating that in the long run inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and thus it is the responsibility of Federal Reserve policy to maintain a low-inflation economy. | | | Explanations for this unexpectedly favorable performance have tended to emphasize factors that have characterized the past several years but that may not persist: acceleration of improvement in labor productivity, strong international value of the dollar, declining (for a time) energy prices, flat (for a time) health care costs and so on. | | | The argument, in its straightforward guise, is that as the labor market tightens, upward pressure on compensation increases, and this pressure is reflected, sooner or later, in rising prices. |
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http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/region/00-06/top9.cfm
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| | Bank of Montreal Economics - Economic Research and Analysis on Canada, United States and International Economies |
| | To be sure, most economists agree that several factors, including welfare reform and early retirement, have contributed to a decline in the NAIRU in the 1990s. | | | Our analysis of inflation trends is largely based on the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU. | | | In spite of a recent drop in the employment cost index (ECI) to 3.4% in 1998Q4, on a year-over-year basis, from 3.7% in 1998Q3, the trend in this wage measure continues upward from a recent trough of 2.8% in 1997Q2. |
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http://www.bmo.com/economic/special/usin99a.htm
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| | Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment - NAIRU |
| | So rather than monitoring the unemployment rate against nonsensical NAIRU all that the central bank ought to do to establish the status of inflation is to pay attention to monetary growth. | | | Also it is argued that strong economic activity and the low unemployment rate means strong demand for workers which in turn puts an upward pressure on wages which in turn raises the cost of production and therefore lifts prices of goods and services. | | | Thus once the unemployment rate falls to below the NAIRU, to prevent future acceleration in the rate of inflation, the central bank is expected to raise interest rates to cool off economic activity. |
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http://www.brookesnews.com/051107NAIRU.html
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| | January Economic Trends: Regional NAIRU |
| | However, the region’s prices have risen at about the same average rate as the nation as a whole, as have its labor costs, which form the largest share of its business expenses. | | | Some policymakers view the concept of NAIRU, the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, as consistent with an equilibrium un- employment rate. | | | Certain economists feel that any unemployment rate above (below) the NAIRU portends an inflation decrease (increase). |
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http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Et97/0197/nairu.htm
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| | EconPapers: Accounting for the Recent Decline in the NAIRU |
| | I argue that the degree of integration of regional labor markets across the United States has accelerated over the recent past, leading to a greater degree of synchronization in the pattern of regional labor market conditions and regional business-cycle conditions. | | | EconPapers: Accounting for the Recent Decline in the NAIRU | | | Accounting for the Recent Decline in the NAIRU |
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http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/bocbocoec/414.htm
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| | HOW UNCERTAIN ARE NAIRU ESTMATES IN COLOMBIA? |
| | Since the NAIRU is the component of unemployment that do not respond to monetary policy, it is up to the goverment to design policies for its reduction. | | | There a single policy implication: An increasing NAIRU along with a policy of reduction and stabilization of inflation may imply increasing unemployment levels. | | | Our results indicate that it has increased about 4 percentage points along the sample span. |
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http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/borrasem/intro184.htm
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| | NAIRU Estimation |
| | The data are monthly and the price level measure is the full CPI. | | | They do not allow contemporaneous unemployment and supply shocks to affect the current period's inflation rate. | | | Less computation is required for Hermite polynomials than for cubic splines. |
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http://jsekhon.fas.harvard.edu/nairu/node1.html
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| | IngentaConnect The NAIRU in Theory and Practice |
| | The exact value of the NAIRU is hard to measure, however, in part because it changes over time. | | | It first considers the role of the NAIRU concept in business cycle theory, arguing that this concept is implicit in any model in which monetary policy influences both inflation and unemployment. | | | This paper discusses the NAIRU—the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. |
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http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/jep/2002/00000016/00000004/art00006
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| | IndustryWeek : Behind Merrill's Lower Inflation Forecast: Lower NAIRU |
| | Home : Economics & Public Policy : U.S. Economy : Behind Merrill's Lower Inflation Forecast: Lower NAIRU | | | When supplier initiatives yield costs savings do you share those savings with suppliers? | | | Merrill estimates NAIRU (the non-accelerating inflation point of unemployment) is now about 4.25%, below the nominal unemployment rate of 5.1%. |
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http://www.industryweek.com/ReadArticle.aspx?ArticleID=10929&SectionID=6
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| | Alphabet Soup |
| | When unemployment is more than the NAIRU, inflation tends to slow down; | | | When unemployment is equal to the NAIRU, inflation continues at an unchanged rate. | | | Thus, corresponding to the NAIRU is a rate of employment, a proportion of the labor force employed, that also corresponds to a stable rate of inflation. |
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http://william-king.www.drexel.edu/top/prin/txt/AS/nairu.html
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| | nairu - definition of nairu by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia. |
| | The lowest unemployment rate that an economy can accommodate without causing inflation. | | | This information should not be considered complete, up to date, and is not intended to be used in place of a visit, consultation, or advice of a legal, medical, or any other professional. | | | nairu - definition of nairu by the Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia. |
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http://www.thefreedictionary.com/nairu
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| | SSRN-Assessing the Uncertainty of the German NAIRU in a State Space Framework Using Different MSE Approximations by ... |
| | Whereas a univariate model of unemployment renders the NAIRU almost uninformative, extending it to a trivariate model consisting of unemployment, inflation and output helps to decrease the uncertainty considerably. | | | A bootstrap method yields confidence intervals with the highest coverage probability compared with simulation-based and delta method MSE approximations. | | | However, because there are long periods of time where differences between the NAIRU and observed employment are not significantly different, the overall uncertainty remains high. |
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http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=728306
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