Federal funds rate - Finance Records
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Topic: Federal funds rate


  
 Federal funds - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Participants in the federal funds market include commercial banks, savings and loan associations, government sponsored enterprises, branches of foreign banks in the United States, federal agencies, and securities firms.
Transactions in the federal funds market enable depository institutions with reserve balances in excess of reserve requirements to lend reserves to institutions with reserve deficiencies.
Banks keep reserves at Federal Reserve Banks to meet their reserve requirements and to clear financial transactions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds   (301 words)

  
 Federal funds rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
The interest rate that Bank A will pay to Bank B in return for borrowing the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all banks is the effective Federal Funds Rate.
U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obliged by law to keep certain no-interest-bearing reserves with the Fed (or to keep an equal amount of vault cash, but this imposes risks and costs).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate   (309 words)

  
 What is the cause of the spread between the federal funds rate and the prime lending rate? (03/1999)
Bottom line: The spread between the fed funds rate and the prime rate is a function of banks' administrative and capital costs of making a business loan.
The bottom line is that all of these costs must be added on top of the bank's minimum cost of funds, the fed funds rate, to determine how much the bank must charge the business borrower in order to break even on the loan.
It is these costs that account for, and determine the spread between the fed funds and prime rates.
http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/drecon/1999/9903.html   (533 words)

  
 Definition of Federal Funds Rate (Fed Funds Rate)
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which a depository institution lends immediately available funds (balances at the Federal Reserve) to another depository institution overnight.
The Federal Funds rate is the interest rate on overnight loans between banks.
A decrease in the federal funds interest rate stimulates economic growth, but an excessively high level of economic activity can cause inflation pressures to build to a point that ultimately undermines the sustainability of an economic expansion.
http://www.econmodel.com/classic/terms/fedfunds.htm   (273 words)

  
 FRB: Monetary Policy, Open Market Operations
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
During the 1980s, the focus gradually shifted toward attaining a specified level of the federal funds rate, a process that was largely complete by the end of the decade.
The Federal Reserve's objective for open market operations has varied over the years.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm   (203 words)

  
 Fed raises federal funds rate
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting Open Market Committee raised its target for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 percent.
Banks charge the federal funds rate to one another for overnight loans.
The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds rate a quarter of a percentage point, to 4 percent.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/fed/main-nov1.asp   (1595 words)

  
 Untitled
The federal funds rate (the funds rate) is the interest rate that banks charge each other when they lend reserves to one another.
The federal funds market is strictly an interbank market for cash reserves.
Even if this were not a legal requirement, it is clear that the economics of banking would ensure that banks would hold a certain percentage of their assets in the form of cash reserves.
http://www.people.virginia.edu/~etb6d/repo.htm   (3275 words)

  
 Federal Funds Rate Data - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The daily effective federal funds rate is a volume-weighted average of rates on trades arranged by major brokers.
The effective rate is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York using data provided by the brokers and is subject to revision.
By trading government securities, the New York Fed affects the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight.
http://newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm   (266 words)

  
 Federal Funds as supplied by EagleTraders.com
The straight one-day transaction in federal funds is unsecured and involves the accounting shift of reserve balances on the books of the Federal Reserve bank, the selling bank’s reserve balance being debited and the buying bank’s reserve balance being debited and the buying bank’s reserve balance being credited.
Nonbank demand for federal funds is principally from U.S. government securities dealers to finance their inventories; there is also participation by foreign banks and their agencies and domestic noncommercial bank financial institutions.
Sources of federal funds include excess reserves (reserve balances at a Federal Reserve bank in excess of legal reserve requirements) of member banks, checks on the U.S. Treasury’s or foreign balances at a Federal Reserve bank, and checks drawn in payment for purchases by the Fed of U.S. government securities.
http://www.eagletraders.com/advice/securities/federal_funds.htm   (554 words)

  
 FRB: Federal Open Market Committee
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.
The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc   (569 words)

  
 Invest FAQ:Regulation:Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate charged by banks when banks borrow "overnight" from each other.
Once the spread between the two rates gets too large (meaning fat profits for the big banks which routinely borrow from the Fed at the discount rate and lend to smaller banks at the funds rate) the Fed moves to adjust the discount rate accordingly.
The Discount Rate is the interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve when banks borrow "overnight" from the Fed. The discount rate is under the direct control of the Fed. The discount rate is always lower than the Federal Funds Rate (see below).
http://invest-faq.com/articles/regul-fed-reserve.html   (493 words)

  
 Re: Fed controls Federal Funds rate?
The expression "Fed funds rate" is commonly used in the media to mean the target rate set by Greenspan and company, not the actual funds rate which is a variable depending on the supply versus demand for Fed funds.
Banks can also borrow funds in the money market from non-bank financial institutions to meet their reserve requirements.
It manages to keep the actual funds rate within about 10 basis of the target on a weekly average basis.
http://www.talkaboutinvestments.com/group/sci.econ/messages/185911.html   (390 words)

  
 FEDERAL FUNDS INTEREST RATE
Interest rates are usually measured on an annual basis, that is, the percentage which must be paid in interest over the period of a year.
An interest rate is a percentage of an amount borrowed which the borrower must pay to the lender in interest.
This is the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for borrowing overnight.
http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/academic/agec217/deboer/other_pages/indic_fedfunds.htm   (380 words)

  
 Federal funds rate, Greenspan and interest
With a firming of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve widely expected, they (market participants) built large short positions in long-term debt instruments in anticipation of the increase in bond yields that has been historically associated with a rising federal funds rate.
Observe that in order to attain a given federal funds rate target the US central bank must constantly manage the flow of money to financial markets.
Conversely, on account of weak economic activity, in order to prevent the rate falling below its target the Fed will be forced to take money from the system.
http://www.brookesnews.com/052006interest.html   (904 words)

  
 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 0.25% - Sep. 29, 1998
The federal funds rate is an overnight bank lending rate that is a benchmark for other short-term interest rates.
     A cut in the federal funds rate means the nation's banks will likely cut their prime rates, which are tied to consumer loans for such items as homes and cars.
NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The Federal Reserve cut a key short-term interest rate Tuesday in a move designed to stave off a slowdown of the U.S. economy and reduce the cost of borrowing.
http://money.cnn.com/1998/09/29/economy/fed   (706 words)

  
 Alan Greenspan lifted the Federal Funds rate target in response to inflationary signals
Both the rate decision by the FOMC and the wording in the Fed's statement regarding the central bank's monetary stance were widely expected by financial markets players.
Against all these developments Alan Greenspan and other Fed policy makers have concluded that the Fed Funds rate target of 1% is far too low and runs the risk of undermining the central bank's objective of maintaining price stability and bringing the economy onto a stable growth path.
Consequently, he believes that if the central bank were to follow a constant money rate of growth rule this would eliminate fluctuations caused by variable changes in the money supply rate of growth.
http://www.brookesnews.com/041207greenspan.html   (2441 words)

  
 Treasury Current Value of Funds Rate
The Current Value of Funds Rate (CVFR) is used to calculate interest on overdue Federal Government receivables and to determine the effectiveness of taking cash discounts (I TFM 6-8040.40) on Government payments.
The rate is calculated quarterly on a 12-month rolling average of the TTandL rate and is subject to revision only if the published rate changes by 2 percentage points at the close of the prior calendar quarter.
Interest charged is simple interest at the rate in effect at the time the debt becomes overdue.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/cvfr   (212 words)

  
 Fed leaves rates alone - Aug. 12, 2003
Though the fed funds rate is at its lowest level since 1958, longer-term interest rates have risen recently, spurred by a selloff in the bond market, anticipating that the economy is poised for a rebound and that the Fed will have to raise interest rates soon to fend off inflation.
The Fed's policy-makers, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), left its federal funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate that often forms the basis of bank prime lending rates, at 1 percent.
In the statement accompanying its decision, closely watched by financial market participants for clues about the future of Fed policy, the Fed said it expects economic growth to strengthen in the near future, but it was worried about a dangerous "unwelcome fall" in already-low inflation.
http://money.cnn.com/2003/08/12/news/economy/fed   (828 words)

  
 Federal-funds rate boosted to 1.75 percent (printable version)
The funds rate is the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans and is the Fed’s primary tool for influencing economic activity.
Even with the latest increases, both the funds rate and the prime rate remain low by historical standards.
Private economists believe the economy, which grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter of this year, expanded at a 3 percent to 4 percent pace in the July-to-September quarter.
http://www.rgj.com/news/printstory.php?id=80893   (754 words)

  
 Funds Interest Rate
Return to Top Bond funds risks There are certain kinds of risks you may encounter when investing in bond funds: Interest rate risk Credit risk Foreign securities risk Currency risk Political risk...
Funds are automatically transferred from your investment account to your business checking...
Resources of interest rate funds money market from filipino barkada More search result for interest rate funds money market Cut the Costs of Your New Baby...
http://www.interestratex.com/fundsinterestrate   (821 words)

  
 Larry Kudlow on the Federal Funds Rate on NRO Financial
The only rate the Federal Reserve controls is the discount rate, which is the rate at which it temporarily loans reserves to member banks.
the federal funds rate that TV and radio economists track as closely as their portfolios — is in fact heavily influenced by the Fed. But to a large extent this rate, too, is set by the supply and demand forces for overnight bank reserves (or, again, plain ol' money).
The next time the Federal Reserve meets, on August 13, it should drop the target for the federal funds interest rate, allowing the Fed's open market desk to buy more Treasury bills and inject more cash into the financial system.
http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow081202.asp   (811 words)

  
 NewsFromRussia.Com US Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate
The rate, which governs overnight loans to banks, was as low as 1% as the Fed loosened credit to bring the country out of the 2001 recession.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate in the sixth consecutive quarter-point increase from the central bank.
According to the Xinhua News, US Fed's policy-making body,said in a statement that "The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity."
http://newsfromrussia.com/world/2005/02/03/58047.html   (1740 words)

  
 Foolish Feature, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve
As a result, if the Fed increases the amount banks pay for their overnight reserve loans, then banks will follow suit by increasing rates on their short-term loans, essentially passing on the price of higher rates to the consumer.
Well begin with the federal funds rate decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a component of the Federal Reserve System.
This also works its way into longer-term rates such as mortgage loans and corporate bonds, particularly if higher short-term rates are expected to continue.
http://www.fool.com/Specials/2001/SpecialFed/AffectsEconomy.htm   (955 words)

  
 SSRN-The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission by Ben Bernanke, Alan Blinder
Finally, using innovations to the funds rate as a measure of changes in monetary policy, we present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through "credit" (that is, bank loans) as well as through "money" (that is, bank deposits) -- even though bank loans fail to Granger-cause real variables.
First, we show that the interest rate on Federal Funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables, more so than monetary aggregates or other interest rates.
Next, we argue that the reason for this forecasting success is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of (not the demand for) bank reserves, i.e.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=254522   (440 words)

  
 Federal funds rate Definition
The interest rate that banks charge each other for the use of Federal funds.
Learn the basics about the Federal Reserve, The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and how monetary policy is used to target interest rates to avoid inflation and slow economic growth.
Federal Reserve Discount Rate, Federal Open Market Committee, Fed funds rate
http://www.investorwords.com/1902/Federal_funds_rate.html   (223 words)

  
 Rising rates may bring some nasty surprises - Personal Finance - MSNBC.com
As the Federal Reserve faces the hefty task of raising the super-low 1.25 percent official federal funds rate back to levels more normal for a growing economy, a wide range of borrowing costs across the economy will also increase.
The bulk of the $10 trillion owed by households is in home loans, most of which is at fixed rates.
A survey of investors released this week by UBS and Gallup found many borrowers could be in for a nasty surprise as they wrongly believe interest payments on their loans are fixed.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5548720   (873 words)

  
 Curious Cat Investing Dictionary Glossary Encyclopedia - Definitions of Investment Terms: Federal Funds Rate
Federal Reserve Discount Rate - The rate set by the Fed for loans to member banks when they borrow from the Fed directly.
The rate has a great influence on the other rates set by banks and financial institutions for loans.
The Federal Reserve Board uses the power to set this rate as a tool to manage the economy.
http://www.curiouscat.com/invest/fedfundsrate.cfm   (225 words)

  
 The Big Picture: Real Federal Funds Rate: Hikes with Teeth
A negative real funds rate creates a strong incentive to borrow money to buy goods and services, since those things will cost more in the future than it will cost to repay a lender.
In June, the real federal-funds rate -- the funds rate minus the rate of inflation -- came to 0.5%.
An additional factor behind stocks' Teflon-like reaction to the Fed, says John Bollinger of Bollinger Capital Management, is that the funds rate only recently rose above the rate of inflation as measured by the consumer-price index.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/08/hikes_with_teet.html   (1111 words)

  
 Blue Chip Pick: Federal Funds Rate Changes
The TIPS Yield should equal the yield of the Treasury bond on the same maturity minus the current core CPI rate (2.1%).
The difference in yield between the 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) and the benchmark 10-Year Treasury-Bond yield serves as an alternative for the market's implicit forecast for inflation.
However, the actual yield on the TIPS does not always equal the calculated yield.
http://www.bluechippick.com/fomc.php   (263 words)

  
 Economist's View: Target Federal Funds Rate Raised 25 bps to 3.50%
FOMC Statement: The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.
As almost universaly expected, the Federal Reserve today announced it was raising the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points, bringing cash rates up to 3½%.
So far the Federal Reserve have raised rates ten consecutive times, by a total of 250 basis...
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/08/target_federal_.html   (724 words)

  
 Federal Reserve FAQ Emily Yoffe
When the Fed met on March 20 and cut its target for a key interest rate by half a percentage point to 5 percent, it was the federal funds rate that they were cutting.
The amount one bank charges to another for those loans is called the federal funds rate.
Because the target that the Fed sets--in particular whether they have raised or lowered interest rates--is the rate on which most other rates of credit are based.
http://www.slate.com/id/1007348   (779 words)

  
 Re: Fed controls Federal Funds rate?
Jonah, as I noted in the followup to Darren's post, the Fed sets the target rate based on a number of economic indicators, and the growth rate of bank loans (credit money) does not rate high on the list.
Through the use of overnight sweep accounts, banks now move substantial amounts of demand deposits out of the reservable category without affecting customer access to their checkable funds.
For example, over the past eight years, while the M2 money aggregate increased by 66%, total banking system reserves actually decreased by 33%.
http://www.talkaboutinvestments.com/group/sci.econ/messages/186155.html   (353 words)

  
 Shave federal- funds rate 50 basis points
In fact, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues should chop a half-percentage point, or 50 basis points, from its principal target, the federal-funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight funds.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the monetary-policy panel of the Federal Reserve, will decide today whether short-term interest rates should be reduced for the first time this year.
There is compression on net interest margin and banks won't cut loan rates any further.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/732183/posts   (220 words)

  
 Financial Planning
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LINK: The IMF is "a cooperative institution that 182 countries have voluntarily joined because they see the advantage of consulting with one another in this forum to maintain a stable system of buying and selling their currencies so that payments in foreign money can take place between countries smoothly and without delay.
Qualified individuals may be required to pay the entire premium for coverage up to 102 percent of the cost to the plan.
FEDERAL FUNDS AND DAILY OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS LINK: Fed Funds are updated daily and the details of the open market operations are added as needed.
http://www.efmoody.com/planning/planningoverview.html   (5535 words)

  
 Federal Reserve hikes funds rate - The Portland Business Journal:
When the fed funds rate is increased, commercial banks typically follow suit by raising their prime lending rate.
In an effort to keep inflation tame, the Federal Reserve raised the "fed funds" rate, the interest that banks charge each other, to 4 percent from 3.75 percent, according to the Associated Press.
Trickling down to businesses and consumers, higher interest rates tend to keep U.S. economic growth in check.
http://bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2005/10/31/daily12.html?from_rss=1   (459 words)

  
 Bloomberg.com: U.S.
The FOMC raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate a quarter point to 2.5 percent at the meeting and restated a plan to make future increases at a ``measured'' pace.
The central bank is trying to steer the overnight bank-lending rate to a level that will keep the world's largest economy growing without speeding inflation.
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee considers interest rates too low to ensure stable prices and future rate decisions will depend on incoming data, according to minutes of their Feb. 1-2 meeting.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=amkD0HTLchNI&refer=us   (764 words)

  
 IndustryWeek : Forecast: Federal Funds Rate 4% At Year End
May 17, 2005 -- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the 12-member Federal Reserve panel that sets U.S. short-term interest rates, is widely expected to raise the target for the influential federal funds rate by 25 basis points at end of a two-day meeting on June 30.
Global Insight, a Waltham, Mass.-based economic forecasting firm, expects 25-basis-point increases to then increase at every FOMC meeting through November of this year, bringing the federal funds target to 4% by year end.
Home : Economics & Public Policy : U.S. Economy : Forecast: Federal Funds Rate 4% At Year End
http://www.industryweek.com/ReadArticle.aspx?ArticleID=10290   (202 words)

  
 HeraldNet: Fed increases federal funds rate
WASHINGTON - Tuesday's increase in the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, marked the seventh time the Federal Reserve Board has pushed rates higher since it started its current credit-tightening campaign in June.
The Fed's action quickly translated into higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, with commercial banks pushing their prime lending rates up by a similar quarter-point to 5.75 percent.
Analysts said this comment supported a view voiced by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials that while energy prices have been increasing, those higher costs have not triggered higher overall inflationary pressures.
http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/03/23/100bus_fed001.cfm   (446 words)

  
 EconPapers: Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate
Theoretical results are consistent with empirical patterns of interest rate volatility in the U.S. market for federal funds.
Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate
EconPapers: Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate
http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/fipfednsr/110.htm   (270 words)

  
 Federal Funds Rate
The interest rate at which a depository institution lends immediately available funds (balances at the Federal Reserve) to another depository institution overnight.
- Learn about the tools the Fed uses to influence interest rates and general economic conditions.
- Few organizations can move the market like the Federal Reserve.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp   (174 words)

  
 SSRN-Federal Funds Rate Prediction by Lucio Sarno, Daniel Thornton, Giorgio Valente
We examine the forecasting performance of a range of time-series models of the daily US effective federal funds (FF) rate recently proposed in the literature.
Sarno, Lucio, Thornton, Daniel L. and Valente, Giorgio, "Federal Funds Rate Prediction" (September 2004).
Contact Information for DANIEL L. Email address for DANIEL L. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Research Division
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=608245   (323 words)

  
 Changes To the Fed (Federal Reserve Board) Funds rate since 1990
Changes To the Fed (Federal Reserve Board) Funds rate since 1990
January 2003 -- Change to "primary - secondary" discount rates.
Latest: March 28, 2006 - Fed Funds and Discount raised by 0.25%
http://www.the-privateer.com/rates.html   (49 words)

  
 St. Louis Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate, %, Weekly, NA
Categories > Interest Rates > FRB Rates - discount, fed funds, primary credit
Categories > U.S. Financial Data > Interest Rates
Home > Economic Data - FRED® > Categories > Interest Rates > FRB Rates - discount, fed funds, primary credit
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FF/118   (98 words)

  
 Working Papers: A Federal Funds Rate Equation
This paper presents evidence that indicates that U.S. interest rate policy during most of the 1980s can be described by a reaction function in which the federal funds rate rises if real GDP rises above trend GDP, if actual inflation accelerates, or if the long-term bond rate rises.
The results presented here however indicate that in recent years the Fed has discounted the leading indicator properties of money.
In contrast, the bond rate has been a key determinant of the funds rate during the period 1979 to 1992.
http://www.rich.frb.org/publications/economic_research/working_papers/paper.cfm?link=95-3   (104 words)

  
 Discount rate and federal funds rate
reserves, is called the federal funds rate, and this is ‘targeted’ by the fed -- i.e.
The interest rate in that market -- for “federal funds,” i.e.
Banks lend and borrow reserves among themselves, often just overnight;
http://www.unc.edu/~lkbryant/econ10/jun20/tsld038.htm   (61 words)

  
 Graph of Federal Funds Rate and Table of Values - HSH Associates Library of Mortgage Information
Graph of Federal Funds Rate and Table of Values
/ Home / Helpful Articles and Information / Graph of Federal Funds Rate and Table of Values
This graph of the different Federal Funds rate over a number of years is presented by HSH Associates, Financial Publishers.
http://library.hsh.com/?row_id=88   (152 words)

  
 A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target - James, Oscar (ResearchIndex)
2 Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic..
3 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Targeting (context) - Glenn - 1995
Abstract: This paper is a statistical analysis of the manner in which the Federal Reserve determines the level of the Federal funds rate target, one of the most publicized and anticipated economic indicators in the nancial world.
http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/328539.html   (423 words)

  
 Federal Funds Rate
Banks borrow and lend temporary excess reserves on an overnight basis in the Federal funds market.
Interest rate set by the Board of Governors.
http://pittsford.monroe.edu/staffweb/apecon/Ch14/sld028.htm   (24 words)

  
 Improving Forecasts of the Federal Funds Rate in a Policy Model - John, Ellis, Tallman (ResearchIndex)
From these findings, it is argued that the inaccurate federal funds rate forecasts from VARs limit their usefulness as a tool for guiding policy decisions.
Some authors caution, however, that the forecast errors of the federal funds rate from such a VAR are large compared to those from the federal funds futures market.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 99-03.
http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/404244.html   (398 words)

  
 Federal Funds Rate Prediction
Recent research has reported that both the federal funds rate futures market and the federal funds target contain valuable information for explaining the behavior of the US effective federal funds rate.
"Federal funds rate prediction," Working Papers 2002-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
However, in terms of density forecast accuracy, we find that the term structure model of the federal funds futures rate is significantly better than the other models considered, and that regime-switching models provide a substantial forecasting improvement relative to their linear counterparts and relative to individual series of the futures rate.
http://ideas.repec.org/p/ecj/ac2003/183.html   (448 words)

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